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A steepening yield curve is when the spread between long- and short-term bond yields widens. Either the long-term yield rises faster than the short-term yield - a bear steepener - or the short-term yield is falling more - a bull steepener. Bear steepenings of the benchmark two-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, when the curve is inverted, are rare. In some ways, a positive-sloping yield curve is the natural order of things. Graff reckons the bear steepening is almost over and the curve will struggle to get past -20 bps.

Persons: Warren Pies, Dario Perkins, Lombard's Perkins, Bond, Bill Gross, Goldman Sachs, Tom Graff, Graff, Jamie McGeever, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, 3Fourteen Research, TS Lombard, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, London reckons

☆ China's deflation could spill over into a global concern, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

SHENZHEN, CHINA - MARCH 09: View of high commercial and residential buildings on March 9, 2016 in Shenzhen, China. "As a result, Chinese economic weakness and falling prices (especially Chinese producer prices) are likely to spill over into global markets — near-term good news for the Western central banks' fight against elevated inflation." "China's disappointing rebound is now feeding negatively into global sentiment and growth. Beyond the trade-related spillovers, a common global disinflationary pressure comes from commodity prices, where as a huge importer of commodities, Chinese domestic demand remains a key factor. "Weak Chinese domestic investment and broad-based excess capacity in manufacturing, as well as weak sales of new homes and land, are likely to continue to depress global commodity demand," Wilding and Liao said.

Persons: Zhong Zhi, Tiffany Wilding, Wilding, Carol Liao, Montgomery Koning, Liao, TS Lombard's Montgomery Koning Organizations: Getty, National Bureau, Statistics, Evergrande, TS Lombard, Lombard, U.S, Census, TS Lombard's Locations: SHENZHEN, CHINA, Shenzhen, China, U.S, Beijing, West, Germany

☆ These 8 charts suggest US stocks still have more upside ahead, despite recent slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US stocks still have further room to run, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe bull market in stocks that started earlier this year isn't ending anytime soon, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. TS Lombard highlighted eight charts to back up its bullish view on the US stock market. The Fed is approaching the top of its hiking cycle, although markets discounting early cuts may be too optimistic," TS Lombard said. Sentiment has largely normalized now; and the S&P 500, if anything, appears oversold today," TS Lombard said.

Persons: Andrea Cicione, Skylar Koning, Lombard, Disinflation, GlobalData Organizations: GlobalData, Lombard

☆ What new norm of slower Chinese growth could mean for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Ying Tang | NurPhoto | Getty ImagesThe Chinese economy could be facing a prolonged period of lower growth, a prospect which may have global ramifications after 45 years of rapid expansion and globalization. The ruling Chinese Communist Party has set a growth target of 5% for 2023, lower than usual and notably modest for a country that has averaged 9% annual GDP growth since opening up its economy in 1978. For the global economy, however, the most immediate spillover of a Chinese slowdown will likely come in commodities and the industrial cycle, as China reconfigures its economy to reduce its reliance on a property sector that has been "absorbing and driving commodity prices." "This shift from a complementary economy, where Beijing and Berlin kind of benefit from each other, to now being competitors is another big consequence of the structural slowdown," Green said. He noted that beyond the immediate loss of demand for commodities, China's reaction to its shifting economic sands will also have "second order impacts" for the global economy.

Persons: Ying Tang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Evans, it's, Xi Jinping's, Rory Green, Green Organizations: Beijing, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Triple, TS Lombard, CNBC Locations: Suzhou, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Germany, Berlin

☆ 3 reasons why even China doesn't want the yuan to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The Chinese yuan is one of the top contenders challenging the USD's dominance as a reserve currency. However, Beijing may not be fully supportive of making the yuan the reserve currency of choice. Here's why even China isn't that keen on de-dollarizing the world economy and making the yuan the top reserve currency. So, the US will need to contend with ever larger amounts of deficit, in order to maintain its pre-eminent reserve currency position. Given the issues standing in Beijing's way, it's unlikely for the yuan to take over the greenback's position as the world's reserve currency of choice, said Green.

☆ The cap on Russian oil is unlikely to change soon — despite opposing views on whether it’s working
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

G-7 nations have so far decided not to revise their cap on Russian oil. She called for policymakers to lower the level of the price cap to continue to pressure the Kremlin's finances. Is the price cap working? Ultimately, Kirkegaard said there was no explicit way to determine whether the oil cap is effective or not. India, China snap up Russian oil

☆ Buy large cap US bank stocks as there's no evidence of a systemic banking crisis, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should treat the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank as an opportunity to buy large cap US bank stocks, according to TS Lombard. The SPDR S&P Banking ETF, which mostly owns large cap US banks, has dropped 23% since the start of March, representing one of its swiftest declines on record. "The SVB crisis has meant a significant tightening in financial conditions, which, in effect, is having a similar impact to that of another Fed hike... However, the market reaction in the short term looks to be overdone; we tactically buy US large cap banks," Montgomery said. And the valuations on large cap bank stocks are not stretched.

☆ China has U-turned on almost all major policies it put in place in the last 3 years — and it's not surprising, given the state of its economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

But the country reversed some major policies in response to the abysmal GDP growth. China's GDP grew by 3% in 2022 — the worst since the chaotic Cultural Revolution ended. Most recently, after three years of pandemic lockdowns and isolation, China abruptly reversed course and abolished its zero-COVID policy — leaving the world guessing why. China's GDP grew only 3.0% in 2022 — the worst in nearly half a century since the chaotic Cultural Revolution ended. China's GDP growth is vital because it is the world's second-largest economy after the US, so it's a driving force for global investment and trade.

☆ China keeps insisting its real-estate market is not in a crisis — even as just about every sign points to the opposite
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The IMF said in a report on China's economy that the country's property crisis remains "unresolved." But China's hit back at that, saying its property market "has been operating smoothly in general, and is not in a 'crisis' situation." China's real estate market has been mired in debt woes for the past few years. The IMF says China's property crisis "intensified" in 2022The IMF said in its Friday report China's property crisis "intensified" in 2022. The debt crisis also had a deep social impact.

☆ India Vs China: Adani Selloff Clouds India Just As China Reopens
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A crisis at the Adani Group is clouding over India just as China reopens. A US short seller report alleging market manipulation and fraud at the Adani Group has caused a market rout. The Adani Group has been defending itself vigorously, but Hindenburg has also doubled down on its initial report. Still, the development has rattled investor confidence, causing a market rout with listed companies under the Adani Group losing over $100 billion in market value so far this year. But, the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite have recovered somewhat this year after China emerged from on-off pandemic lockdowns.

☆ China protests could usher in 'more authoritarian' Xi era, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Police form a cordon during a protest against Chinas strict zero COVID measures on November 27, 2022 in Beijing, China. "It raises the pressure on Xi Jinping, and I think likely puts him towards a more authoritarian approach to governance in China," Green added. As such, Xi's CCP could clamp down further on public protests, Green noted. That was the case during 2019's pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, and 1989's Tiananmen Square protests on the Chinese mainland. "In the short term, the Covid policy will only be fine-tuned without moving the needle," Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL, said Monday.

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